Bart Watson told cidery owners and makers at CiderCon 2026 that the beverage alcohol industry is facing a level of disruption that goes well beyond cyclical downturns, driven by simultaneous shifts in consumer behavior, retail consolidation, distribution dynamics and cultural attitudes toward alcohol.
While cider has recently outperformed other alcohol segments, Watson cautioned that no category is insulated from broader change, pointing to total beverage alcohol volume declines of roughly 5-6% over the past year as evidence of how quickly long-standing assumptions can break down.
“What we’ve seen over the last year is kind of radically different,” said Watson, CEO for the Brewers Association, during his talk at the kickoff of the American Cider Association’s CiderCon 2026 in Providence, Rhode Island last week. “This isn’t one thing. It’s a whole set of changes that have all pointed in the same direction.”
He emphasized in his talk as a special guest to the cider industry that consumers are not just rethinking what they drink, but how they spend their time and money, noting that for many producers, the biggest competition may no longer be another alcohol category, but “people’s couches and phones.”
Despite those headwinds he argued that while flavor and variety remain essential, they are no longer sufficient differentiators in a market crowded with options and dominated by large producers that can compete aggressively on price and scale.
Instead, Watson said small, independent producers’ strongest advantage lies in what he described as a third dimension: values, identity and story.
“You can choose completely how you define your company, how you run it, what you stand for and how you communicate that to consumers,” he said, calling those elements the most defensible sources of differentiation for small producers in the years ahead. In a period of instability, Watson added, community and trade associations can provide support and coordination, but long-term success will depend on how clearly individual businesses define and communicate why they exist and why they matter.
After his talk he sat down with ACA CEO Monica Cohen and added in their chat those pressures should push producers to focus less on macro headlines and more on what individual businesses can control. He argued that even in a challenging environment, alcohol consumption as a social behavior is not disappearing, but the ways people socialize and spend their time are changing, creating new forms of competition that go beyond other beverage categories.
Cohen asked how closer collaboration between breweries and cider producers could raise product quality as more breweries expand into cider.
Watson said shared education and quality standards benefit the entire category, noting that poor first experiences can suppress long-term demand.
“High-quality products benefit everyone,” he said. “If the first glass in somebody’s hand isn’t something they want a second glass of, that’s not good for the industry.”
Watson said brewers entering cider are often approaching it as part of a broader “beverage company” strategy, particularly those already known for innovation.
He noted that cider frequently starts as a taproom offering, often driven by demand for gluten-free options, before becoming a more permanent part of a brewery’s portfolio.
“They’re realizing that they are a platform and a brand that speaks to sociability,” he said, adding that beer remains core for most breweries, but cider can fit naturally alongside it.
When Cohen asked what advice he would give producers facing ongoing headwinds, Watson pointed to lessons from craft beer’s own recent reset. “The sooner you can get ahead of it, the sooner you can start to say, ‘Where are those headwinds, and where can I see opportunity?’” he said.
Drawing parallels to industries like dairy and soft drinks, Watson argued that periods of contraction often force necessary adaptation rather than permanent decline. Watson also emphasized that there is no single strategy that works for every producer, noting that many craft breweries had to rethink assumptions about growth, geography and distribution after a once-reliable model stopped delivering results.
“It’s not one size fits all,” he said. “You have to understand where you sit in the ecosystem and work to maximize that.”
For some businesses, he said, that has meant pulling back from distant markets, reining in production and focusing on profitability rather than volume.
Looking longer term, Watson said he remains optimistic about small producers because consumer demand increasingly aligns with what they do best. He identified flavor, variety and values as the three main drivers of beverage alcohol choice, while acknowledging that competition on flavor and variety has intensified as large companies adopt craft-style playbooks.
“That’s a headwind,” Watson said. “But it also tells me that small producers are on the right track.”
He said independent producers are better positioned to find niches and communicate meaningfully with consumers than companies dependent on massive production runs.
What concerns him most about the future is changes in socialization and persistent negative narratives around alcohol. While he said younger consumers have historically returned to long-term consumption averages as they age, he warned that producers must be intentional about reinforcing the role of beverage alcohol in moderation and community.
“We have to think consciously about how we create a counter-narrative around sociability and moderation,” Watson said, “that reminds people why they get together and why having a glass of something at the end of the day is a great way to connect.”
Throughout the conversation, Watson returned to the idea that cider and beer share more than production techniques.
Both, he said, are fundamentally in the business of staying relevant by adapting to how consumers live now, not how they lived a decade ago.
For cider producers, he suggested, the craft beer industry’s recent recalibration offers both a cautionary tale and a roadmap for navigating uncertainty without losing identity.
