Just as the title asks: What did everyone expect? Was the industry supposed to grow aggressively year-to-year forever?
Typically, for any industry, aggressive growth is considered somewhere between 6-10% Year Over Year (YoY). Those companies are usually centered around technology and energy — not beer.
Certainly brewing provided a lot of excitement for our economy and showcased creativity in a sector that had become sleepy for the vast majority of America before the late 2000s.
Craft brewing as a whole was opening up consumers to a business entity that drove home the age-old idea of “We won’t drink what our parents drank.”
Just like all other industries, brewing will look back and see COVID as a breaking year. However, it’s worth reminding everyone that the 2020-2021 Volume YoY was +8% and Retail Dollars YoY was +21%.
Subsequently, while volume was basically flat from 2021-2022, retail went up another 6%.
Propaganda is intense through social media. I argue that this is all due to issues stemming from 2020 when we had nothing better to do than doom scroll on our phones.
As one of my good friends in Kansas continues to promote “Craft Beer Ain’t Dead.”
In my recent missive I stated that craft is, and has always been, in the best possible position. As an industry, modern brewing is more nimble and willing to pivot to consumer demand than almost any other industry.
Brewers and owners alike don’t see their business as an adult beverage, but as an artform showcased as a beverage.
However, back to my main question: what did everyone expect? Did everyone imagine that craft beer, or brewing in general, would continue to grow YoY without any pull back?
Social influencers start to pass blame to younger generations, but most of GenZ doesn’t even have expendable income yet. Most of them aren’t finding well-paying jobs, much less drinking outside of hyped college bars. Millennials were in the same boat until the mid 2010s when breweries became the safe haven.
There are two things that brewing will always need to flourish — young professionals, and expendable income. While we may have seen setbacks in 2024 through 2025, the horizon is a light shade of gold for this industry.
Jobs will eventually return and the younger generation will attain those jobs that give them an expendable income. Brewing will continue to pivot and taprooms will be flooded with a new wave of consumers.
Will this new wave be the same as it was in the 2010s? That is a question I think everyone wishes they had an answer to. However, all industries have rough years, but I’d contend that a 6% increase YoY in retail sales isn’t the downfall that social media pundits are making it out to be. It’s a transition in the industry. One that is moving quickly away from major distribution and back into the taproom.
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